The Modeling Process in Geography
From Determinism to Complexity
Edited by
Yves Guermond
Wiley (London)
In a book published in 2007, Lena Sanders [SAN 07] revealed the great variety of choices made by geographers in the field of spatial analysis modeling. Our aim is not to produce a new inventory, but to propose general reflections about the realizations and perspectives of modeling research, both in the field of theoretical geography and in the field of applied geography in town and country planning. The tools are widely available, and are continuously improving, for spatial analysis as well as for geographic information systems. The MTG research group (models and graphic processing in geography) was created in 1986, with the ambitious target of keeping “close control of the new technical tools, with a permanent link to social demand, and to discover all the opportunities of interface between science and technology”. These 20 years of collective research have now given us an opportunity to propose this “reflection”. The chapters below are the work of researchers currently working in the laboratory, as well as former members of the initial team, who are now working in other universities.
The first two chapters situate our research program: what does a modeling process mean, and what is the specificity of this process in the field of human and social sciences? The path covered since the early realizations of spatial analysis is a basis from which new research has developed, mainly in terms of simulation techniques, thanks to recent computing developments.
In Chapters 3 to 8, we see how these models are confronted with the reality of what geographers are being asked to do in the field of land planning and management: cultural policy, territorial forecasting, socio-spatial segregation, inequity of regional dynamics, polarization, enclosing. Geography is, by definition, engaged in a process of understanding the relationship between society and space, but these confrontations with material work must not occlude the importance of a permanent evolving theory.
Table of Contents
Foreword. The Taste for Measuring and Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Nicole MATHIEU
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxiii
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxv
Chapter 1. The Place of Both the Model and Modeling in HSS. . . . . . . . . . 1
Patrice LANGLOIS and Daniel REGUER
1.1. Models and modeling: definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2. The mathematical concept of a model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2.1. The semantic conception. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2.2. The empirical concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.2.3. Links between the mathematical model and its object . . . . . . . . . 7
1.3. Is there a specificity of HSS? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.4. Modeling: explain to understand?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.5. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Chapter 2. From Classic Models to Incremental Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Yves GUERMOND
2.1. The geographic “object” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.2. Lessons from the “classic models” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.3. Introduction to dynamics and auto-organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.4. From auto-organization to complexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.5. Spatial agents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.6. Incremental modeling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.7. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
vi The Modeling Process in Geography
Chapter 3. The Formalization of Knowledge in a Reality Simplifying System ........ 39
Françoise LUCCHINI
3.1. Formalizing a complex cultural system using a series of perspectives . . 40
3.1.1. An initial perspective on culture and the city: the French example . . . . . . . . . . 40
3.1.2. A simplification of the cultural system in place in France that
is transposable to other countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3.1.3. Culture: possible measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3.1.4. Culture in a centralized state: a French diagnostic turned
towards the elaboration of a transposable investigation protocol . . . . . . 45
3.1.5. The necessary re-formulation of knowledge to overcome the
successive and qualitative steps of advancement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
3.2. Differentiation of the system of cities by culture: contribution of the
spatial analysis for testing the “global cultural model” . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.2.1. A methodological investigation to define the cultural potential
of British and French cities and their competitive capacity . . . . . . . . . 51
3.2.2. A comparative intra-urban study of two cities: similar disparities
at the heart of the urban areas of Rouen and Brighton . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
3.3. Alternative formalizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.3.1. Measuring urban cultural potential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3.3.2. A way to better define the global operation of the cultural system . 68
3.4. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.5. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Chapter 4. Modeling and Territorial Forecasting: Issues at Stake in the
Modeling of Réunion’s Spatial System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Gilles LAJOIE
4.1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
4.2. A few major theoretical breakthroughs for modeling spatial complexity . . . . .. . 72
4.3. Modeling and territorial forecasting of the socio-spatial system of
Réunion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
4.3.1. Spatial complexity and social urgency in Réunion or future deviations . . . . . . . . 78
4.3.2. The trend scenarios or the probable future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
4.3.3. Catastrophic scenarios/unacceptable futures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
4.3.4. Reformist scenarios/desirable futures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
4.4. Modeling of Réunion’s socio-spatial system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
4.4.1. Graphic modeling of Réunion’s complexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
4.5. Towards a modeling of the dynamics of Réunion’s system . . . . . . . . 93
4.6. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
4.7. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Table of Contents vii
Chapter 5. One Model May Conceal Another: Models of Health
Geographies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Alain VAGUET
5.1. Modeling in order to surpass descriptions? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
5.2. Mode of the models and models in vogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
5.2.1. Modeling of healthcare provision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
5.2.2. The models put to comprehension and action testing . . . . . . . . . 109
5.3. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
5.4. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Chapter 6. Operational Models in HMO. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Jean-François MARY and Jean-Manuel TOUSSAINT
6.1. Buffer and barycenter to determine the location of cardiac
defibrillation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
6.2. Thiessen’s accessibility formula . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
6.3. Accessibility: the direct added-value of the GIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
6.4. A regional database of road accessibility devoted to emergency . . . . . 123
6.5. The reallocation projects and their consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
6.6. Relocation of a medical clinic: simulation of a new accessibility . . . . . 131
6.7. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Chapter 7. Modeling Spatial Logics of Individual Behaviors: From
Methodological Environmentalism to the Individual Resident Strategist . . 137
Michel BUSSI
7.1. Reconsidering spatial determinism: modeling versus local development . . . . . . 138
7.2. Ecological methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
7.2.1. Individualism and ecology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
7.2.2. What place does geography have in the systemic approach to
societal phenomena? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
7.2.3. The collective dimension of individual facts: the intra-urban example . . . . . . . 146
7.3. Towards a post-industrialist behavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
7.3.1. Self-organization and segregation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
7.3.2. Space/individualism: two interpretations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
7.4. From neighborhood effect to the theory of the citizen-resident-strategist 152
7.5. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
Chapter 8. Temporalities and Modeling of Regional Dynamics:
The Case of the European Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
Bernard ELISSALDE
8.1. Integrating time and temporalities into spatial models . . . . . . . . . . . 162
8.1.1. A renewed approach to time. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
8.1.2. Temporalities and complex systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
viii The Modeling Process in Geography
8.1.3. A necessary introduction of polytemporality into modeling . . . . . 166
8.2. Introduction of complexity theory in the interpretation of regional inequalities in Europe . 168
8.2.1. The European Union: regional convergences or divergences? . . . 172
8.2.2. Which interpretive models? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
8.2.3. The evolution of regional inequalities in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . 175
8.2.4. Evaluating the issue of possible catch-up and convergence . . . . . 180
8.2.5. Hypothesis of the neighborhood effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
8.3. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
8.4. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
Chapter 9. Modeling the Watershed as a Complex Spatial System:
A Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
Daniel DELAHAYE
9.1. Shape indices for measuring various forms of a watershed. . . . . . . . . 192
9.2. Organization of the networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
9.2.1. Genesis of hydrographical networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
9.2.2. Researching network laws. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
9.2.3. Towards a law concerning reach distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
9.3. Synthesis concerning the shape and organization indices. . . . . . . . . . 200
9.4. From morphometry to complex systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
9.4.1. Methodological framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
9.4.2. Results from the simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
9.4.3. Applications and the contributions of the cellular automaton . . . . 210
9.5. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
9.6. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
Chapter 10. Understanding to Measure...or Measuring to Understand?
HBDS: Towards a Conceptual Approach for the Geographic Modeling
of the Real World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
Thierry SAINT-GERAND
10.1. A forgotten face of the geographic approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
10.1.1. The causality in question . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
10.1.2. The concept in the light of the technique: “collisions” and
misadventures of a couple in disharmony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
10.1.3. The conceptual modeling of the geographic phenomena: a
necessary prerequistie, why and how . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
10.1.4. The GIS: a special spatial information system . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
10.1.5. The geographic object: logic makes the entity . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
10.2. Formalizing a spatial reasoning in databases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
10.2.1. Operational structures for the geographic modeling of the
real world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
10.2.2. Preliminary research into the data structuring methods: a historical overview . . . . . 227
Table of Contents ix
10.2.3. A methodology adapted to research: hypergraphic modeling
by Bouillé . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
10.2.4. Spatial concepts and planar law for a hyper(geo)graphic reasoning . . . . . .. . . . 235
10.3. Example of thematic application: the industrial risks at Notre-
Dame-de-Gravenchon (lower Seine valley) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
10.3.1. Identifying the specific and central concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
10.3.2. To identify the peripheral concepts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
10.3.3. Formalizing the spatial synthesis of danger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
10.4. Back to the sources... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
10.5. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
Chapter 11. Complexity and Spatial Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
Patrice LANGLOIS
11.1 The paradigm of complexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
11.2. The systemic paradigm: from the combinatorial to emergence. . . . . . 260
11.2.1. The systemic triangle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
11.2.2. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. . . . . . . . . . . . . 262
11.2.3. The whole is less than the sum of its parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262
11.2.4. The whole as a structure of its components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
11.2.5. The whole as an emergence of its parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266
11.3. Moving towards a more formalized definition of the notion of a spatial system . . . .. . . 266
11.3.1. First definition of a system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266
11.3.2. Geographic objects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
11.3.3. Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
11.3.4. The functioning of a system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
11.3.5. A formal definition of a spatial system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274
11.4. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
Chapter 12. Cellular Automata for Modeling Spatial Systems . . . . . . . . . 277
Patrice LANGLOIS
12.1. The concept of the automaton and its modeling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
12.2. A little bit of history . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
12.3. The concept of the finite state automaton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
12.3.1. Mealy and Moore automata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
12.3.2. An example of Moore’s automaton. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
12.3.3. Moore’s automaton simplified . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
12.3.4. Logic gate AND: an example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
12.3.5. Threshold automata, window automata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
12.3.6. The automaton and the stochastic process. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284
12.4. The concept of the cellular automaton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
12.4.1. Level of formalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
12.4.2. Presentation of the concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
12.4.3. The formal definition of a cellular automaton . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
x The Modeling Process in Geography
12.4.4. The cellular network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
12.4.5. The neighborhood operator and cell neighborhoods. . . . . . . . . 287
12.4.6. Input pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
12.4.7. The local rule of the transition of the cell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
12.4.8. Configuration and global transition mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . 289
12.4.9. Configuration space: attractor, attraction basin,
Garden of Eden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289
12.4.10. 2D cellular automata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
12.4.11. The game of life: an example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
12.5. CAs used for geographic modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
12.5.1 Diffusion simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
12.5.2. The SpaCelle model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
12.5.3. Simulation of surface runoff: RuiCells model . . . . . . . . . . . . 304
12.6. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
12.7. Websites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307
Chapter 13. Multi-Agent Systems for Simulation in Geography:
Moving Towards an Artificial Geography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
Eric DAUDE
13.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
13.2. From global to local description of structures and spatial dynamics. . . 310
13.2.1. Spatial analysis in practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
13.2.2. Artificial geography in practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
13.3. Multi-agent systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
13.3.1. Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314
13.3.2. Agents in the environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
13.3.3. Method of communication between agents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316
13.3.4. Multi-agent systems and geography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317
13.3.5. A typology of MAS models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
13.4. Artificial geography: simulations of structures and spatial dynamics . . 319
13.4.1. Emergence and evolution of spatial structures . . . . . . . . . . . . 320
13.4.2. Exploration of dynamics in space. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
13.4.3. Practices, representations and organization of space . . . . . . . . 326
13.5. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
13.6. Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
Yves GUERMOND
List of Authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339
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